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Re: Relegation battle

By Morgs10/3 08:44Sun Mar 10 08:44:26 2019In response to Relegation battle

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Got 42 points. In a 42-game competition.
20th place outfit still has only 33. From 34 games. That's just shy of 1-point-per-game (according to my friend Diane).
We also have 4 clubs between our righteous asses and the valley of darkness, so it's not a case of one club going on a Whitehawk-style run of 4 straight wins putting us in peril.
Law of reversion to the mean says Harlow, W&F and BHT may well improve a tad over the last eight games, but it's fanciful to suggest the 20th club will have more than 44 points at 4:55 on the last Saturday of next month.
We'd almost need to lose every game to go down.
It looks plausible that someone could go down with a tally close to 50 in the Not Police / Staines division, where Dorchester are "it" with 39 points from 33 games, but someone in the congested bottom half of that league will almost certainly limp home with 4 points from their last 9 games and go down with 44 or so.
No realistic danger of the drop.

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